Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 28.Dec.2015 to 1.Jan.2015

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 28.Dec.2015 to 01.Jan.2016

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Choppy next week on F&O rollovers; bias positive

Next week, trade in local equities is expected to be choppy and stock-specific due to
rollover of derivative positions, as the December series will expire. During the expiry
week, market typically tends to be volatile. However, this time dealers expect
volatility to be low. The overall bias is slightly positive as indices have ended up for
the second consecutive week. But, the upside is seen capped as due to lack of any
major positive triggers and year-end holidays globally.

Yesterday, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex ended flat at 7861.05 points and 25838.71
points, respectively, due to absence of any triggers. Breakout above 8000 (on Nifty
50) would be the first confirmation of the resumption of the uptrend at least for the
medium term. The S&P BSE's Sensex closed flat at 25838.71 points. Most market
participants see indices ending 2015 on a positive note and are hoping for a better

We expect the mid-cap sector to continue to outperform large-caps in the next year,
although action may turn stock-specific, as valuations are getting expensive. The key
reason for the out-performance of mid-caps is the fact that the positive impact of
operating leverage and financial leverage has been more profound compared to large

This trend is expected to continue on the back of an incremental fall in input costs and
likely reduction in interest rates in CY16. The mid-cap space is Bajaj Finserv, Jagran
Prakashan, Jet Airways, Greaves Cotton, Ashoka Buildcon, Somany Ceramics, among
others. Among sectors, technical charts indicate banks may remain weak next week.

During the session, selling in banking stocks pulled down Nifty 50 and Sensex to the
day's low of 7835.50 points and 25763.40 points, respectively. Although Nifty Bank
had touched a high of 16939.60 points, it failed to sustain gains due to lack of followup
buying and this indicates that some selling is likely. In view of the expected
pressure in banks, traders should keep their positions light on Nifty 50.

Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 21.Dec.2015 to 24.Dec.2015

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.Dec.2015 to 24.Dec.2015 (Likely to consolidate next week, bias positive)

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 24.12.2015 (Expected to trade rangebound, with the positive momentum)

After gaining 2% each this week, Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely
to consolidate in the week ahead due to lack of any major triggers
Domestically as well as globally. Domestically, while the winter session
of Parliament will be watched, the non-passage of the Goods and Services
Tax Bill is unlikely to result in an aggressive correction in equities.

We expect the market likely to be volatile in the near term due to
domestic cues, as the prevailing uncertainty towards the passage of the
GST and the challenges in balancing the deficit due to tepid growth in
disinvestment. Continued disruptions in Parliament though could weigh
on sentiment.

After an eventful week, activity is likely to remain subdued in a week of
holidays. On Friday, domestic equities will remain closed for Christmas.
Globally, various markets will be on half day, or will stay shut on
Thursday as well.

The sentiment will remain positive as indices are Nifty is likely to move
in a range of 7700-7950 points for the week. Yesterday, the 50-share
index ended at 7761.95, down 82.40 points or 1.0% from the previous

Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 14.Dec.2015 to 18.Dec.2015

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.12.2015 (Seen gaining some ground on tribunal's ruling)

Robust industrial growth data for October is seen supporting market sentiment
on Monday but equity markets are still likely to be weak next week as investors
await the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's two-day
meeting that ends Wednesday.

Industrial growth for October was 9.8% as against 8.0% estimated by most
market participants. Growth in the capital goods sector was 16.1% as against a
decline of 3.2% last year.

While many market participants point to the low base last year, when Industrial
growth declined 2.7%, and due to spending ahead of festival season, some
believe the better-than-expected growth is showing signs of recovery in the
economy. Selling by foreign institutional investors in December in anticipation
of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep any recovery in
equities under check.

Until Thursday, foreign institutional investors and foreign portfolio investors
had net sold shares worth $534.28 mln so far this month on the BSE, National
Stock Exchange, and the Metropolitan Stock Exchange combined. It is
expected that the Nifty 50 will trade with negative bias for the week, however,
the reaction to FOMC meeting outcome could change the course of the market
mid week.

We expect volatility in the market, which he believes is a signal of indices
bottoming out. We advised traders to stay cautious prior to the announcement.
The expectation of volatility over the next week has made some market
participants bullish about equities.

Among sectors, the imposition of a 5-57% anti-dumping duty on cold rolled
steel products from China, South Korea, European Union, South Africa,
Taiwan, Thailand, and US will have a bearing on steel stocks, which could see
investors favouring them but could result in a weak outlook for automobile
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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.10.2015 Positive next week; ITC, Dabur earnings in focus


Corporate earnings and outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's monetary
policy meeting will lend direction to domestic share indices next week, but on Monday
indices are set to witness a gap-up opening as China announced a cut in interest rates.
After Indian market hours, China announced that it had cut its one-year lending rate and
one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points, and reduced its reserve requirement ratio by 50
basis points to boost the economy.

Major European indices extended their intraday gains on the news and were up over 1-
3%. A near 1% rise in Dow futures indicates that the US market will also open on a
strong note later yesterday. Apart from these markets, prices of base metals on the
London Metal Exchange also advanced following China's move, which may boost stocks
of domestic metal and mining companies on Monday.

Yesterday, the Bank Nifty ended up 1.3% at 17934.05 points. Whether the gains in
indices sustain over the week will depend on corporate earnings and outcome of US
FOMC's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the earnings-heavy week and
expiry of the October derivatives series, also expect some volatility in the domestic

Rollovers will be closely watched this time around as the lot size for the Nifty is higher in
the November derivatives series. In August, the NSE had announced a revision of the lot
size of the CNX Nifty to 75 from 25 starting from the November contract.

Broadly, Nifty is seen moving in the 8200-8400 point range next week. Expect the index
to face stiff resistance between 8350 and 8400 points. Yesterday, share indices ended up
but off the two-month high it hit intraday on weakness in some telecommunication
companies' shares and select index heavyweights. The Nifty closed up 43.75 points or
0.5% at 8295.45 points and the Sensex ended up 183.15 points or 0.7% at 27470.81

In the coming week, Bharti Airtel, Housing Development Finance Corp, Lupin, Maruti
Suzuki India, Ambuja Cements, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, YES Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC,
Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank will detail Jul-Sep earnings. On Monday, Asian
Paints may open down 2-3% as the company's Jul-Sep earnings, released after market
hours yesterday, fell short of analysts' estimates.


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.10.2015 (RIL seen up on buoyant Jul-Sep GRM, PAT)

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries' robust Jul-Sep earnings are set to further lift the mood in the equity markets on Monday, but action in the latter part of the week will be stock-specific, taking direction from earnings of other key companies. Post market hours yesterday, Reliance Industries reported robust earnings—a net profit of 65.6 bln rupees, beating analysts' estimate of 58.39 bln rupees.

The company reported gross refining margin of $10.6 a barrel, up from $10.4 a quarter ago. Besides Reliance Industries, the Jul-Sep earnings of other Nifty constituents such as HCL Technologies, UltraTech Cement, ACC, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Cairn India, HDFC Bank, Wipro, Idea Cellular, and Asian Paints will be in focus next week.

Earnings are important, vital. If earnings are not good, then I think we will see disappointment post that. Some market participants advise caution, even if indices gain. Traders should continue with positive yet cautious approach and prefer only quality stocks even for the day trade. The global markets will also be watched for cues. Technical analysts see the National Stock Exchange's Nifty gaining next week and could test 8300 points after breaking the crucial support level of 8200 points.

The 50-stock index is seen finding support at 8100 points. Yesterday, the Nifty ended at a near two-month of 8238.15 points, up 0.7%, and the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to end at 27214.60 points. Gains in the broad market were led by banks, with the Bank Nifty ending as the top gainer among sectoral indices, up 1.3% at 17912.85 points.

Next week, the index is seen extending gains and could test 18200 points. Among other sectors, cement companies are also likely to be in focus next week, with ACC and UltraTech Cement reporting their Jul-Sep earnings.
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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 12 to 16.10.2015 (Narrow range with negative bias)

After gaining over 3% this week, the bias for benchmark indices is expected to remain positive next week, while Jul-Sep earnings of key index constituents and data on consumer price index-based inflation and industrial growth will be in focus.

Among index-constituents, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, and Reliance Industries will report Jul-Sep earnings next week. Market sentiment will also depend on data on CPI and index of industrial production.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen consolidating between the levels of 8000 and 8300 points next week. The 50-share benchmark index ended at 8189.70 points, up 60.35 points or 0.7% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27079.51 points, up 233.70 points or 0.9%.

Stocks of information technology companies will be in focus next week as the earnings for the sector are kicked off by Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, the two index and sector majors.

Investors will also closely track Bihar assembly elections, which will begin next week. Voting for 49 seats in the first phase of polls will happen on Monday.

Among sectors, housing finance companies and select banks are seen outperforming as the Reserve Bank of India has cut risk weight requirements on certain home loans. This is also seen positive for stocks for real estate companies in the affordable housing segment over the long term.

Stocks of State Bank of India, IDBI Bank, and Bank of Baroda are seen outperforming the sector. The Bank Nifty is seen taking support at 17,170 points and facing resistance at 17,800 points. The banking gauge has ended its volatile week with modest gains of 2.5%.

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.Oct.2015 (Selling pressure to continue next week)


Traders are likely to watch the movement in global equity market next week due to lack of significant triggers in domestic equities. With no major domestic event in near future, we believe global cues would largely dictate our market trend in coming days.

Markets will be closed on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti. Market participants expect a positive bias but gains are likely to be capped as traders will be on the sideline ahead of corporate earnings for Jul-Sep on Oct 9, a market participant said. IndusInd Bank's results will kick start the earnings season.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen facing stiff resistance at 8050 points, although 8000 points is a key psychological level. Due to selling at higher levels the index has failed to close over 8000 points over the last one month, despite rising above that level intraday in four sessions during the period.

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Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 28.Sep.2015 to 1.Oct.2015

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 28.09.2015 to 01.10.2015 May open up next week on RBI rate cut hope


Sentiment is expected to be frail next week as foreign institutional investors will continue selling in emerging markets and this will cap any upside if the Reserve Bank of India was to cut rates on Tuesday. The RBI will detail its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy of 2015-16 (Apr-Mar) on Tuesday. The MSCI Emerging Market Index has slumped over 5% this week due to fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, and slows down in the global economy. India has also under-performed most other emerging markets in this month. In September so far, foreign investors have net sold $415.76 mln in the Indian equity market.

Most market participants expect the RBI to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points. Benign consumer price inflation readings, running below the central banks own indicative trajectory and broad-based disinflation have offered room for monetary easing. Expect the RBI to adopt a neutral to a mildly hawkish stance, as it may shift its focus to consumer price inflation target of 5% in January 2017. These factors are seen weighing on benchmark indices in the next week.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is expected trade between 7700-8000 points next week. Thursday, it ended at 7868.50 points, up 22.55 points or 0.3% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 25863.50 points, up 40.51 points or 0.2%.

In the futures and options segment, rollovers to the October series indicate that market participants have transferred mostly short positions in Nifty, and rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, capital goods, infrastructure and metal. The sentiment in banks is also negative as RBI's draft guidelines to change the current base rate framework to ensure faster transmission of policy rate cuts is seen weighing on net interest margins. If the new base rate is implemented then banks' net interest margins are expected to witness a contraction of 13-70 basis points over the next two financial years.

Factoring in concerns revolving around asset quality, slower credit growth and margin compression on adoption of expected new base rate framework. A continuous decline in iron ore and copper prices have ensured that traders roll over a high amount of short positions in the October derivatives contracts of metal companies. On the bright side, information technology sector has witnessed a high rollover of long positions, as the rupee is expected to depreciate further against the dollar. The sentiment is also positive on media sector, which has been relatively insulated from global uncertainty and is also expected to post robust growth in revenue. This was evident from the high amount of long rollovers seen in Dish TV, Sun TV Network and Zee Entertainment.

Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 21.Sep.2015 to 25.Sep.2015

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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.09.2015 (Stocks will be driven by Newsflow)

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The Indian equity market is likely to be volatile next week ahead of the expiry of September futures and options on Thursday, while hopes of a rate cut by the RBI may spur gains in rate-sensitive stocks.

As the US Federal Reserve left key policy rates unchanged in its monetary policy meeting that ended Thursday, market participants expect strength of the dollar and US bond yields to be capped.

Meanwhile, market participants expect foreign institutional investors to stall capital flows to emerging markets such as India, owing to uncertainty over global economy and the timing of a rate hike by the Fed.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen trading between 7750 points and 8150 points in the coming next week. Yesterday, both benchmark indices ended up about 1%, with the Nifty closing up 82.75 points at 7981.90 and the S&P BSE Sensex ending up 254.94 points at 26218.91.

A spike in volumes and volatility in the last fifteen minutes of yesterday session indicated that traders unwound their long positions, and this reflects caution ahead of expiry of the September derivatives contract on Thursday. While some market participants expect rate-sensitive stocks to rise in the near-term, others are skeptical whether the rate cut would be passed on by banks.

Stocks of information technology companies and US-focussed pharmaceutical companies are likely to witness some profit booking as the dollar is seen continuing gaining strength against the rupee. Last trading day the rupee appreciated 1.1% to trade at 65.74 rupees against the dollar.

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